Will Grand Theft Auto VI help or harm the games market in 2025? Discuss.

The second quarter of 2025 is now upon us and it’s fair to say that the first one held precious few surprises when it comes to the gaming market: the Nintendo Switch 2 was announced (but not fully revealed yet), a handful of AAA games – like Monster Hunter Wilds, Split Fiction or Assassin’s Creed Shadows – had successful launches, a few accidental leaks may have given us insight into Microsoft’s future plans for Xbox but… that’s about it, really. More interesting developments are expected over the next few months, though, including the release date of that Game That Shall Not Be Named within the circles of the gaming industry: Grand Theft Auto VI.

There’s a reason why the most eagerly anticipated video game of the 21st century is discussed in hushed voices among executives and managers right now. It’s the same reason why Rockstar’s upcoming title is not yet grabbing as many media headlines as one would expect – and no, the almost unnerving lack of official information is not that reason. It is actually this: the release date of GTA VI will more or less shape the most important part of 2025 in terms of scheduling, as practically every publisher releasing a new game after the summer will try to distance themselves from that 3-week or 4-week window around that title’s launch.

Grand Theft Auto VI is definitely going to greatly affect the gaming market in 2025, that much is clear. Will it mostly do so in a positive way, though, or in a negative one? What are the odds of either scenario playing out? Here’s where things stand right now and what Rockstar can do about this unique situation.

Selling millions of copies and new consoles, stealing everyone’s time and money

On how GTA VI is practically guaranteed to break records in day one sales and revenue, everyone seems to agree: the successor to a game that surpassed 210 million copies sold across several formats in a decade was always going to be huge. This new version of Grand Theft Auto will once more remind everyone how important the video games market truly is in the context of modern entertainment, helping move millions of PS5 and Xbox Series consoles in the process (almost half of the people currently playing GTA Online are still doing so on a PS4). If there’s a third-party, multi-format game capable of working as a system seller, this is it.

People keeping a close eye at the video games market are hoping for more than just impressive sales when it comes to GTA VI, though. This could be the title that finally does the PS5/PS5 Pro and the Xbox Series X justice on a technical level, after five years of cross-gen mediocrity that failed to excite a lot of gamers since 2020. Take-Two has always been ambitious with its open-world titles and the new GTA has been in development for a very long time, so it’s fair to expect an audiovisual tour-de-force that pushes boundaries like only a handful of modern console games have done so far. Furthermore, a lot of people hope to see at least a handful of genuinely new, innovative gameplay mechanics that will help GTA VI become one of the defining games of this generation.

The problem with an entertainment property as huge as GTA VI (regardless of when it’s released) is that it will negatively affect parts of the gaming market too. This game, for instance, will not just be at the center of attention: it will practically monopolize the conversation on mainstream and industry media alike for months, a situation that will hurt the chances of any other 2025 game receiving enough coverage and launching to its full potential. More importantly, when the time comes for GTA VI to launch, it will be purchased by so many people that it’s impossible to imagine sales of many other titles not being lower than they’d otherwise be as a result.

GTA VI will most likely affect the gaming market in both a positive and negative way – it all comes down to “how much” and “for how long”.

What’s more, it’s easy to imagine GTA VI taking up so many gamers’ playtime after its launch, that a new cycle of extensive media coverage will begin – so sales of more titles will be affected and more engagement time will be taken away from titles depending on it (such as live service games). How long this GTA VI-focused period will last is anyone’s guess, but it could very well last long enough to almost ruin Q4 2025 for everyone else.

Of course, as many people will surely point out, GTA VI will most likely affect the gaming market in both a positive and negative way. It will generate a lot of revenue for Rockstar and the gaming market as a whole – but it will also deprive other publishers of revenue over its launch period. It will sell a lot of PlayStation and Xbox consoles – but it will probably hurt sales of new PCs or graphics cards to consumers eager to play the game as soon as humanly possible. Its multiplayer component will help sell more console online subscriptions (such as PS Plus Essential or Xbox Game Pass Core), but it will also reduce engagement and playtime on most other types of live service games. The list goes on.

Question is, though: will all of that lead to a net positive or a net negative for the video games market? If yours truly was forced to choose, he’d like to think that the release of GTA VI will be a good thing for the gaming industry overall. It will help broaden the customer base of PlayStation and Xbox consoles (meaning more revenue for everyone involved long-term), it will help make the gaming market attractive to investors and talent again, it will hopefully raise the quality bar for open-world games in terms of tech and game mechanics.

Yes, the new GTA will be responsible for a few months of market chaos, so to speak, but things will get back to normal… eventually. But it’s fair to day that, overall, the gaming industry will be better off with it than without it – which is all that needs to be said really.

So why is there no official release date for GTA VI yet?

Based on what most industry veterans and analysts seem to believe – and what Rockstar themselves have indicated over the past 12 months or so – Grand Theft Auto VI is supposed to be released between September and November of this year. This being the beginning of April, it’s easy to assume that if the title had to be delayed into 2026 then Take-Two would have probably made an official statement by now. It’s no use allowing hype to be steadily built around a product if it’s still a year or more away from release.

On the other hand, many believe that if GTA VI was indeed a fall 2025 game, then Rockstar would have already announced its release date – or that it is about to – for one rather obvious reason: preorders. The company seems to allow at least 4-6 months between opening preorders for a new game (it did so with both GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2), so it will either share that important piece of information soon or it would have done so in March. All of this, obviously, assuming that GTA VI is released in September or October.

Both views make a certain amount of sense but there’s a third factor to consider that has nothing to do with marketing plans or preorders: the angle of corporate uncertainty. Simply put, not many people outside Take-Two’s headquarters actually know when the much-discussed title is due for release, simply because not many people have a clear picture of the game’s current state.

Not many people outside Take-Two’s headquarters actually know when GTA VI is due for release, simply because its current state is unclear.

It’s basically like this: if Grand Theft Auto VI is feature-complete and its creators are just putting the finishing touches on its campaign or ironing out various technical issues, then the game will be able to make its announced Q3 release date. But if the company decides that it needs more polishing to hit the level of quality Take-Two goes for (like it did with GTA V), then there’s no way that a two- or three-month delay will be enough for that, effectively pushing its release into Q1 2026 at the earliest.

Rockstar needs to do the right thing – and do it soon

Taking all of the above into account, it’s easy to see why this complex situation has made so many people nervous in the gaming industry as of late. What can Rockstar do about all this, then? It’s pretty simple: if the company has a clear picture of GTA VI‘s current state – as it very well should by now – then its executives have to come forward and share the release date of the game as soon as humanly possible.

At this point in time, it’s just the right thing to do if Rockstar wants to act responsibly towards its fans, its investors and its partners – towards the rest of the gaming industry really. The company letting such an important date be subjected to speculation for so long is not to anyone’s best interest, while letting uncertainty hanging over the heads of so many publishers and game industry workers is plain wrong.

As for the current outlook in terms of a possible GTA VI delay? Yours truly regrets to confess that he finds the probability of it not being released this year rather high. Based on Rockstar’s track record, at least one publicly announced delay would not be exactly unprecedented. More than that, though, it just feels odd that, even by Take-Two’s standards in terms of secrecy, we still know so little about a huge game that’s supposed to be out in six months. Even if the company means to show off the most exciting aspects of GTA VI closer to launch – as it would be a smart choice to make – a single official trailer for it in the span of 15 whole months is rapidly becoming a concern.

If Rockstar has a clear picture of GTA VI‘s current state – as it very well should by now – then its executives have to come forward and share its release date as soon as possible.

Maybe Rockstar is trying something different with its marketing approach this time around by revealing and releasing a AAA blockbuster in as short a period of time as possible. Maybe the company feels that people will show up for GTA VI regardless of what it will or will not do to promote it (which is probably true). One can’t help but think, though, that Rockstar hasn’t officially announced a release date yet simply because its executives are not sure whether they can hit it or not. Which is reason enough for a delay in any case, no?